自从上周中国央行(PBoC)改变了一项关键货币政策声明的措辞以来，市场一直在猜测中国政府是否以及何时会允许人民币升值。

措辞的变化意义重大，因为严密管控着人民币价值的中国政府自去年夏天以来一直维持着汇率的稳定。而措辞变化的效果也是立竿见影：过去几天里，对于人民币对美元升值的预期已经升至一年以来的最高水平，预期未来12个月人民币将对美元升值3.4%。

中国央行的第三季度货币政策执行报告删去了承诺维持人民币汇率“基本稳定”的说法，并补充道，在完善人民币汇率形成机制时，会考虑主要货币走势变化，而不仅仅是美元。

包括美国在内的许多国家都认为，人民币钉住不断贬值的美元导致其自身价值遭到严重低估，从而给予了中国出口部门有失公允的贸易优势。

因此，中国央行的报告引发了对于中国货币政策将在美国总统访华之际发生转变的激烈猜测，而奥巴马出发前曾承诺会提出汇率问题。

要求人民币升值的国际呼声也有所增强。国际货币基金组织(IMF)的声音尤为突出，但是其它许多国家也与之呼应，包括一些亚洲国家。

IMF总裁多米尼克•斯特劳斯-卡恩(Dominique Strauss-Kahn)昨天表示，人民币升值是中国政府增加国内消费、推动中国经济摆脱出口依赖所必需进行的改革的一部分。

“货币升值是一揽子必要改革计划的重要组成部分，”他表示。“允许人民币和其他亚洲货币升值将有助于提高居民购买力，增加劳动收入的比重，并为重新调整投资提供正确的激励。”

过去一年实施了巨额刺激计划之后，中国经济数据有所好转。最近的数据显示中国有望在第四季度超越8%的增长目标，但同时它们也显示货币供应增幅达到创纪录水平，意味着通胀压力逐渐增加。

三菱东京UFJ银行(Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi-UFJ)的德里克•赫尔潘尼(Derek Halpenny)表示：“问题在于，迄今采取的行动何时能对经济造成一定程度的影响，促使中国经济政策的重心从支持经济增长转移到缓解不断积聚的通胀压力上来。”

他还说，中国货币供应的数据表明2010年通胀压力会再度抬头，可能因而促使中国回归2005年7月至2008年6月间人民币渐进升值的政策。

不过赫尔潘尼认为这种政策可能会吸引新一轮的资本流入。

“人们可能会争论说，渐进升值的政策实际上会刺激投机资本流入，从而挫败控制国内流动性状况的努力，”他表示。

另一种选择是对人民币实行一次性大幅度升值，这或许能够减轻人民币进一步升值的猜测，从而遏制投机资本的流入。

但没有多少分析师预测中国会采取如此大胆的举措。

他们表示，在现阶段，人民币升值可能会破坏脆弱的复苏趋势，不仅是中国，还包括美国。

尽管中国完全能够实现8%的增长目标，但增长的构成就不那么令人欢欣鼓舞了。中国经济增长有一半是受到政府财政刺激措施的推动，而不是私营部门需求的推动，此外出口反弹也做了很大的贡献。

法国巴黎银行(BNP Paribas)的汉斯•雷蒂克(Hans Redeker)表示：“从供应驱动型经济向需求驱动型经济的转变还要一段时间，其间仍然需要政府的持续支持，因此看来中国目前不太可能愿意将出口贡献的经济增长置于货币升值的风险之下。”

他还说，除此之外，考虑到一旦中国外汇储备增长速度放缓可能对美国债券市场造成的负面冲击，美国现在要求人民币升值不太合理。

中国已经积累了2.273万亿美元的外汇储备。其中大部分投资于美国国债，因此对美国国债收益率有所控制。一旦中国外汇储备增长出现中断，就可能提高美国国债收益率，从而威胁美国经济复苏。

美林财富管理公司(Merrill Lynch Wealth Management)欧洲、中东和非洲地区(EMEA)投资组合策略师比尔•奥尼尔(Bill O'Neill)表示：“中国外汇储备缩减可能导致美元兑欧元汇率出现反转，进而对从大宗商品到信贷的一系列市场造成重大影响。我们不认为年底之前中国会采取任何行动，但哪怕只是货币政策调整的暗示也可能足以削减经济复苏的势头，迫使美元贬值和周期性资产升值。”

在一件事情上，观察员们似乎达成了共识，那就是在奥巴马访华期间，人民币汇率不太可能发生变动。

“我们认为不会出现重大突破，”花旗集团(Citigroup)的迈克尔•哈特(Michael Hart)表示。“中国是不会愿意屈服于国外压力的。”

译者/何黎
作者：英国《金融时报》 彼得•加海姆 2009-11-18 
出處：FT中文网  

(原文)Speculation grows over next step for the renminbi
As Barack Obama undertakes his first official visit to China, the fate of the renminbi is again in the spotlight of the international currency market.

Ever since the People's Bank of China changed the wording of a key currency policy statement last week, there has been speculation about whether and when the Chinese currency will be allowed to strengthen.

The wording change was significant because the Chinese authorities, which tightly manage the value of the renminbi, have kept the currency stable since the summer of last year. And the impact was immediate: in the past few days, forecasts for the appreciation of the renminbi against the dollar have risen to their highest level in a year, predicting a 3.4 per cent rise over the next 12 months.

The central's bank third-quarter monetary policy report omitted a phrase promising to keep the renminbi “basically stable” and added it would consider other major currencies, not just the dollar, in guiding the exchange rate of the renminbi.

China allowed a near- 20 per cent appreciation of the renminbi between July 2005 and June 2008, but re-pegged to the dollar last year to protect its exporters as the financial crisis intensified.

Many, including the US, believe the renminbi's link to the falling dollar has left it acutely undervalued, giving China's export sector an unfair trade advantage.

The PBoC report has therefore led to intense speculation about a shift in currency policy to coincide with the US president's visit, ahead of which he pledged to raise the issue of exchange rates.

There have also been greater international calls for a stronger renminbi. The International Monetary Fund has been particularly vocal, but many other countries have joined the chorus, including some in Asia.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the IMF, said yesterday that exchange rate appreciation was part of the reforms that Beijing needed to implement to increase domestic consumption and move the country's economy away from a reliance on exports.

“A stronger currency is part of the package of necessary reforms,” he said. “Allowing the renminbi and other Asian currencies to rise would help increase the purchasing power of households, raise the labour share of income, and provide the right incentives to reorientate investment.”

Chinese economic data has improved following the huge stimulus programmes implemented over the past year. Recent figures have shown the country is on course to exceed its 8 per cent growth target in the fourth quarter, but they also show money supply growth hitting record levels, implying a build-up of inflationary pressures.

“The question is when will the action taken to date impact the economy to such an extent that the focus of economic policy in China shifts from supporting economic growth to tempering building inflationary pressures,” says Derek Halpenny at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi-UFJ.

He says Chinese money supply figures point to renewed inflationary pressures in 2010, which could lead the country to revert to the policy of gradual renminbi appreciation seen from July 2005 to June 2008.

However, Mr Halpenny says such a policy might attract a new wave of capital into the country.

“One could argue that the policy of gradual appreciation actually encouraged speculative inflows that frustrated attempts to control domestic liquidity conditions,” he says.

One option would be a large, one-off revaluation of the renminbi, which potentially could douse speculation over further rises and hence depress speculative inflows.

But few analysts predict such a bold step.

They say a renminbi revaluation at this stage could derail the fragile recovery that is developing not only in China, but also in the US.

Although China is on target to achieve its 8 per-cent growth target, the composition of that growth is less encouraging. More than half of China's growth has been driven by the government's fiscal stimulus rather than private demand with a rebound in exports also making a significant contribution.

“With the transition from a supply to a demand-driven economy likely to take some time with ongoing government support, it seems unlikely that China will be willing to put the contribution from exports at risk from a higher exchange rate at this time,” says Hans Redeker at BNP Paribas.

Furthermore, he says, it currently makes little sense for the US to push for a higher renminbi given the potential negative impact on the US bond market resulting from any slowing in Chinese reserve accumulation.

China has built up foreign exchange reserves of $2,273bn. Much of this has been invested in US Treasuries, keeping a lid on US bond yields. Thus any pause in Chinese reserve accumulation could lift yields and threaten any US economic recovery.

Bill O'Neill, Portfolio Strategist at Merrill Lynch Wealth Management, EMEA, says: “A turn in the dollar against the euro as a consequence of reduced Chinese reserve accumulation would have enormous repercussions for markets from commodities through to credit. We do not expect to see a move by China before year end, but merely the hint of a shift in currency policy could be enough to take some of the fuel out of the steamroller, forcing the dollar lower and cyclical assets higher.”

One thing on which observers seem to agree is that there is unlikely to be any revaluation during Mr Obama's visit.

“We do not expect a major breakthrough,” says Michael Hart at Citigroup. “China is loath to give in to foreign pressure.”